We have now approached the halfway point of the the 2016 college football season and that means we have a clearer picture of how the College Football Playoff will take shape. Judging by this week's rankings it appears that the Big Ten, the SEC, The ACC, and the Pac-12 will each send a team to the championship bowl games. The Big XII, it seems, may be the power conference that gets left out unless either Baylor or West Virginia remain undefeated. Meanwhile, Navy's victory over Houston last week has put an undefeated Boise State of the Mountain West Conference in a position to be the Group of Five's representative to the New Year's Six Bowl Games. As for which teams will go to the playoffs, it is still to early to tell until the first CFP rankings are unveiled on Tuesday, November 1st. For now, let us take a look at the top ten teams in this week's AP Poll to see which ones have the best chance of making it to the CFP.
#1 ALABAMA
Once again, the Alabama Crimson Tide are #1 in this week's AP Poll. The Tide are 7-0 overall with a 4-0 record in SEC Conference play. At this point, it is safe to say that Alabama controls its own destiny in the SEC West. In fact, some might argue that this Crimson Tide team is playing in a league of its own after its dismantling of what was a #9 Tennessee squad (The Volunteers have since fallen to #18 in the AP Rankings) This Saturday, Alabama will host Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. ESPN's College Gameday will be there since it is a match-up between two top ten teams. So far, the Aggies will be the highest ranked team that Alabama will play on its remaining schedule, as they are currently #6 in the AP Poll. Unlike Tennessee, it is believed that Texas A&M will be a more formidable challenge, as Kevin Sumlin's offense outclasses the Tide in both passing and rushing yards. Both teams have averaged more than forty points a game. A high-scoring shootout at Bryant-Denny Stadium is possible if Alabama's defense falters. Alabama also has the following games against ranked opponents: #25 LSU (11/05) and #21 Auburn (11/26).
#2 OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes survived a major challenge from Wisconsin and, in so doing, extended their road winning streak to 20 games. However, Ohio State for the second week in a row struggled during the first half and could not win in Madison without going into overtime. But even with first half difficulties, the Buckeyes have averaged 216.0 passing yards, 300 rushing yards, and 49.3 points per game. Indeed, their defense has only given up an average of 12.8 points per game. If Ohio State can keep yielding these kinds of numbers (J.T. Barrett still passed 226 yards and ran for 92 yards with 3 touchdowns on Saturday, mostly in the 2nd half) then it is possible to finish the season undefeated. But the Buckeyes have a long way to go. Their remaining schedule is going to be very difficult for them to win out if they cannot find a way to fix their first half deficiencies. The Buckeyes have to face ranked teams like #8 Nebraska on November 5th and #3 Michigan on November 26th. Prior to these ranked opponents, Ohio State still has to play a tough Penn State team (Saturday's Game) at State College, and it will host a resurgent Northwestern Wildcats team that scored more than fifty points in its last game against Michigan State in East Lansing. Season is up in the air.
#3 MICHIGAN
The AP Poll raised Michigan's ranking from #4 to #3 even though the Wolverines had a bye week. It could probably be argued that Michigan's ranking would have stayed the same had Clemson not struggled against an unranked North Carolina State. But, Michigan is now #3 and head coach Jim Harbaugh has positioned his team to make a run for the national championship. Michigan currently possesses the best defense in the FBS in terms of points allowed (10.3), the 2nd best scoring offense (50.0 points per game), and perhaps the most versatile player in the country in LB Jabrill Peppers (now a potential Heisman Trophy candidate). Indeed, when a couple of friends of mine before the season asked my opinion about which team could win the championship, I responded by predicting that if Michigan gets into the College Football Playoff, they will win. And judging by the Wolverines' upcoming schedule, it appears that they may have clear path to the Big Ten Conference Championship. All of their upcoming games feature non-ranked opponents with the exception of #2 Ohio State. Does that mean it will be an easy schedule? Absolutely not, since the Big Ten East Division has been touted as one of the best, if not the best division in the 2016 college football season. Michigan's schedule also features Big Ten West division teams Illinois (which it plays Saturday) and Iowa.
#4 CLEMSON
Clemson's victory over an unranked North Carolina State was nothing short of disappointing. A missed 33-yard field goal was the only thing that kept Clemson from being eliminated, at least in the short-term, from CFP contention. But, the Tigers still won in overtime and they are still in the top five in the AP Poll for now. Clemson has a bye this week, and the Tigers will pay a visit to Tallahassee to play the #13 ranked Florida State Seminoles on October 29th. According to ESPN, Clemson is now 15-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. But judging by how Florida State has averaged 35 points per game compared to Clemson's 36.6 p.p.g. average, it looks like the Tigers will have to play it real close once again. But the problem with that strategy, as we witnessed on Saturday, is that luck has a part to play in close wins. And one day, that luck will run out. But, Clemson fans can at least take stock in the fact that they have great athletes like star QB Deshaun Watson and RB Wayne Gallman to lead their team on to the field, play competitive football, and not give up. The Tigers do have a path to the CFP Championship, but their next two games will be difficult. Not only to they play a ranked Florida State squad, they have to host a Syracuse team that shocked the college football world in its upset of what was then a rising power: Virginia Tech, which until last weekend was ranked #17. Good Luck, Clemson. It looks like you may need it.
#5 WASHINGTON
Like Michigan, Washington had a bye week and its next game will be on Saturday, October 22nd against an unranked Oregon State at home. Anyway, over the last few weeks, Washington has become the dominant team in the Pac-12 North division. Since becoming head coach, Chris Petersen has completely revitalized a Washington Huskies program that has not won a conference championship since 2000. So far, the Huskies are favored to win the PAC-12 title, along with a berth in the College Football Playoff. Washington has averaged nearly 50 p.p.g. with a defense that has held its opponents to an average of 14.2 p.p.g. This year's team also has a Heisman Trophy Candidate in QB Jake Browning. ESPN notes that in his last two games, he threw nine touchdowns and no interceptions while helping to maintain his team's passing yard average of 252.2 yards per game. As for the rest of Washington's schedule, it looks to be difficult and a bit deceptive in terms of ranked vs. unranked opponents. For now, the Huskies only have one ranked team on their schedule: #19 Utah, which they will play on October 29th. The rest of their schedule is as follows: Next is Oregon State, which has a reputation for toughness, California on November 5th (a team that beat Texas and Utah), USC, Arizona State, and rising power Washington State, which has won four games in a row. Perhaps the key to the Pac-12 North will be this year's Apple Cup. But, for all intents and purposes, The Huskies control their own destiny.
#6 TEXAS A&M
All eyes will be on the Aggies this Saturday when they play against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Earlier today, ESPN characterized this game as "Unstoppable Force Meets Immovable Object." Texas A&M has one of the best offensive lines in the country (274 yards per game, 6.8 yards per rush with 19 TDs) but they have to go up against Alabama's rigid defense. Alabama's defensive line has only allowed an average of 64 yards per game and it has restricted its opposing offensive lines to an average of 2.0 yards per play. It is obvious to anyone who follows the sport that Texas A&M has to beat Alabama in order to get into the College Football Playoff, especially since both teams play in the SEC West Division. Saturday's game may determine who ultimately gets the division title and a berth to the SEC Championship Game. After the Alabama game, the Aggies' schedule get a little less difficult with games against unranked opponents UTSA, New Mexico State, and Mississippi State. Future ranked opponents include #23 Mississippi and a revitalized #25 LSU team under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.
#7 LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals are currently 5-1 overall (3-1 ACC) but one-loss teams can still get into the CFP. It often depends on when and how that loss occurs and whether that team in question can sufficiently recover from it. In Louisville's case, they were able to put themselves back on track after their loss to Clemson with a hard-fought win over Duke. But like Clemson's difficulties with NC State, in which an unranked Wolfpack squad managed to hold the Tigers high scoring offense to less than 20 points during regulation play, Duke's defense did something similar to Louisville when they held the Cardinals' offense to 24 points. Up until the Clemson game, the Cardinals under star QB Lamar Jackson had averaged between 50-60 points per game. Speaking of NC State, Louisville hosts the Wolfpack for Saturday's game. I have to imagine that NC State will be playing with a lot of confidence since they nearly defeated Clemson on the Tigers' home turf. Louisville will need to ready for this game. A loss at home to an unranked NC State will end their chances of getting into the CFP.
#8 NEBRASKA
Head Coach Mike Riley has engineered a remarkable turnaround for his Nebraska Cornhuskers. In his first year as Nebraska HC, Riley finished the season with a 6-7 record in spite of a postseason bowl win. This year, Nebraska is undefeated, ranked #8 in the country, and has a very good chance to get into the CFP even if they have one loss. That loss could come from when they play #2 Ohio State on November 5th. However, the most important future game on the Huskers' schedule is when they play #10 Wisconsin on 10/29. In this blogger's opinion, the Wisconsin game is much more important because of the divisional alignment of the Big Ten Conference. Both Nebraska and Wisconsin are in the Big Ten West division and a win over the Badgers would provide the Huskers with a clear path to the Big Ten Championship game. However, the Huskers still have formidable opponents on their schedule, with upcoming games against Minnesota, Maryland and Iowa. This weekend, the Huskers host Purdue. Given the state that Purdue's program is in now that it has fired head coach Darrell Hazel, Nebraska should have a 7-0 record going into next week. Purdue is the last seemingly easy game before Nebraska's schedule gets a lot tougher. Will the Huskers remain undefeated? Probably not. Can the Huskers get to the CFP? Perhaps Yes.
#9 BAYLOR
Baylor is undefeated in the Big XII, but so is #12 West Virginia, and #16 Oklahoma. But unlike West Virginia, Oklahoma has two non-conference losses. These two teams appear to represent Baylor's biggest challenges to maintaining its undefeated record. However, judging by Baylor's strong offense (scoring average: 43.7 ppg) and stout defense (only allowed 17.2 ppg), the Bears have a good chance of finishing their conference season undefeated. Baylor has a bye this week and that should give the Bears a chance to rest before they go to Austin next week for their game against Texas. ESPN predicts that Baylor has a 61% chance of defeating Texas, but that rating could change depending on how well the Longhorns play in Saturday's game against Kansas State. Texas' current problem is their defense, which has allowed an average of 34 points per game. But Baylor should keep an eye on the Longhorn offense, especially RB D'Onta Foreman who ranks second nationally with an 146.2 yards per game rushing average. If Baylor's defense can contain Foreman, then it is likely the Bears will earn a win in Austin and, in so dong, build the confidence they need to finish out the year undefeated. Baylor's last game of the season is against rising power West Virginia, which they will play in Morgantown. The college football world may not know the true state of Big XII football until after the last down has been played in the "Wild and Wonderful" state of West Virginia.
#10 WISCONSIN
Out of all the teams in this week's top ten, Wisconsin does not have much of a chance of getting into the CFP. The Badgers are the only two-loss team in the AP top ten but both of their losses were to then-ranked #4 Michigan and #2 Ohio State. They still have to play one more top-ten ranked team on their schedule (#8 Nebraska), but the rest of the Badgers' season features unranked, albeit formidable opponents. This Saturday they play the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, then after playing Nebraska, the Badgers travel to Evanston to play a revitalized Northwestern squad, then games against Illinois and Purdue, and finally, Minnesota, a game that is always interesting and fun to watch. As for the Iowa game, ESPN gives the Badgers a 61% chance to win. However, Iowa is 3-1 in conference play and the odds-makers only give the Badgers a 3-point advantage. This game may be Wisconsin's last chance to stay in the top ten and keep itself positioned for a berth in a New Years Six bowl game. Perhaps the Badgers could end up with an at-large appearance in either the Sugar, Orange, or Cotton Bowls.
